Uncertainties in upstream oil and gas: The role of integrative technology

Abstract

In recent years, there has been a noticeable decline in the volume of reserves discovered. This trend can be attributed partly to reduced drilling activity and lower investment, but also to the increasing complexity of exploration. The era of discovering large reserves beneath simple structural traps is largely over. At present, exploration demands a focus on plays with stratigraphic variability, complex geology, and deep targets. This shift necessitates not only advancements in seismic imaging technology, but also a high level of integration and collaboration across disciplines. These themes will be exemplified through a couple of real-world examples discussed in this paper.

Exploration inherently involves uncertainty, whether it is in the presence of source, reservoir, trap or migration pathways. The associated risks can range from dry holes to smaller-thanexpected reserves, etc. Seismic interpretation plays a key role in the estimation of exploration uncertainties. Though quantifying uncertainty objectively remains a challenge, certain approaches can meaningfully contribute to exploration success. Drawing from my personal experiences, this paper outlines methodologies that have been instrumental in achieving exploration and development success.

The first example highlights how breakthroughs in near field exploration were achieved by an independent company through integration of geoscience technology with a deep understanding of both local and regional geology. In this case, the geological model of the entrapment was validated by experimenting with and adapting the appropriate seismic imaging and AVO technologies.

The second example emphasizes the value of technological innovation and interdisciplinary collaboration, focusing on the West Delta Deep Marine project. One of the major uncertainties in field development is the connectivity of reservoir channel complexes, which is usually underestimated. The examples shared highlight the role of seismic technology in disentangling different channel systems, and how the integration across disciplines can reduce uncertainty in channel connectivity, which is crucial for infill well planning and reservoir management.